1. We reviewed the other side of MSU – and it doesn’t inspire confidence
CHICAGO — It was the game every Michigan State fan feared — when the Spartans stopped shooting 60 percent from beyond the arc and, for at least an afternoon, didn’t couldn’t buy a bucket (hitting 3 of 16 3s). Couple that with an opponent who was punching, defending fiercely and playing with conviction, and MSU had a problem they couldn’t solve.
Friday’s 68-58 loss to a suddenly rolling Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinals was not a confidence-inspiring game that MSU is poised to race in the playoffs.
It’s the kind of afternoon a team has to be able to get through. Because that’s the kind of afternoon that can happen in almost any round of any tournament.
MSU is not a team that can sport its will against the Buckeyes. At best for MSU, it’s an even game in that regard. It’s the execution, the shooting, the connection – that’s where the Spartans are supposed to have an advantage. But once they didn’t, they also lost some of their composure and courage.
Every time they started making a move, they sloppy it – being a bucket and foul dropped right away defensively, a timely missed layup, a dunk or fumble pass, or a substitution which seemed to hinder the momentum.
The best of these Spartans is really good. They can roll. They can shoot four or five deep. They have guards that can hurt you and play swagger. MSU’s worst, however, is never far away. This team has a playmaker who sometimes gets ahead on his skis – like when he unsuccessfully tried to dive the ball on a fast break at a key moment in the second half when a lay-up would have done the trick. This MSU team has a center that struggles to grab the ball, whether it’s catching passes or rebounding, like Mady Sissoko did sometimes on Friday, and a big freshman who doesn’t isn’t quite ready to always offer a better alternative when needed. MSU rarely gets anything easy on the rim. It’s a hard way to live sometimes. This team has a senior striker, Malik Hall, whose season has been derailed by injury and is unable to find any sort of attacking rhythm.
This is the team we saw too often on Friday. This is the team MSU needs to avoid being the rest of the season or it won’t last into next weekend.
MSU didn’t lose to Ohio State, which they beat 62-41 a month ago in Columbus. He lost to Ohio State, which he narrowly beat at home last week. The Spartans just didn’t hit any shots this time. And the Buckeyes, who have been the most disappointing team for most of the Big Ten season, have found something in the past two weeks – beating Illinois, Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa and now MSU, with their only six-point loss six days ago at Lansing East. They are wreaking havoc in a league against which, for a long time this winter, they looked lost. Friday, in their third game in three days, they played with a fire of their own. And MSU didn’t.
“It’s one of the most disappointing days (this season) because I thought we had a legitimate chance to maybe win this thing,” said Tom Izzo. “That’s not to say it’s all gone wrong, and the way we’ve played the last three weeks, months, after everything we’ve been through, has been pretty darn good. Today we laid an egg, and part of it was the state of Ohio, and part of it was the state of Michigan.
The Spartans’ opponents aren’t likely to get any worse or less athletic or less confident in the NCAA Tournament.
MSU struggled in this one in the second half. The good Hoggard showed up a bit late, trying to drag the Spartans with him, to erase the early game damage. Ohio State had an answer. A lot of teams from now on will. The Spartans can’t play that way and hope to survive. They won’t have to face a team they’ve already beaten twice. It will help.
“It was good that we played them, so we had a good feel for them,” Ohio State senior judge Sueing said. “…We had a lot of self-confidence.”
I still think MSU can make a run, get to weekend two of the NCAA Tournament, be tough. I just trust the idea a little less.
2. MSU’s range of small balls doesn’t give it an edge
The idea behind a formation with Joey Hauser and Malik Hall as a power forward-center combo is that it should cause a headache in the center of your opponent, trying to keep a faster and more skilled player, someone one they must defend until 3-point the line and chase some paint. This does not happen for MSU. There really isn’t much going on this Big Ten season. And Friday should have been the perfect game for it to be an advantage, with Ohio State center Felix Okpara in the game, the Spartans needing an offensive jolt, trailing 24-17 with 6:30 until mid -time.
More than two minutes later, it was 28-19 Ohio State and MSU’s offense no longer looked threatening.
And when MSU cut the Buckeyes lead to 56-50 in the second half with four quick points, Hall replaced Sissoko. It did not work. The momentum quickly dissipated.
Hall’s foot injury, missed time and now lack of offensive pace — and defensive movement, hampered by a sore back — prevented MSU’s small-ball formation from having a chance to take flight. It’s probably time to bail out. It is not a formation that causes defensive problems for opponents. And he doesn’t rebound well enough or give the Spartans enough defensive athletic feel to be OK for him to be on the floor without providing a spark on the other end.
3. It likely solidifies the Spartans as the 7th seed in the NCAA Tournament
Losing to Ohio State probably won’t drop the Spartans from a seeded line in the NCAA Tournament. The metrics have liked the Buckeyes all season, more than their record. It could end up being a Quad 1 loss for MSU by the time all is said and done, if Ohio State ends up in the top 50 of the NET rankings. The Buckeyes were No. 56 going into Friday’s game.
But if MSU straddled that line between a 6 and 7 seed, it likely confirms the Spartans’ placement as a 7 seed, which means they would face a 10 seed in the first round and, s they win, a seeded 2 to second. round. Like last year. The shame is that this team is better than last year’s team in some ways and yet in the same place.
Ranking probably matters less to this team than any MSU team in recent memory. When they’re good, there might not be a college basketball team these Spartans can’t beat. There’s also probably no 10 seeds that can’t beat the version we saw on Friday.
Just wait for the parentheses.
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Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.